Title race12m
City's machine quietly closing in
Game in hand pushes effective title probability to 44%. Underlying xG (+5.0 vs Arsenal) suggests the gap is bigger than the table shows.
+6% title probTape
67'ARS2–0WHU|54'MCI1–1CHE|FTLIV3–1BHA|TOTFri 12:00 AMNEW|AVLFri 12:00 AMFUL|BOUSat 12:00 AMEVE|MUNSat 12:00 AMNFO|WOLSun 12:00 AMLEI|67'ARS2–0WHU|54'MCI1–1CHE|FTLIV3–1BHA|TOTFri 12:00 AMNEW|AVLFri 12:00 AMFUL|BOUSat 12:00 AMEVE|MUNSat 12:00 AMNFO|WOLSun 12:00 AMLEI|
TABLEIQ Terminal
Premier League · 2025/26
Live · MD 18Updated 10:25 PM
Title race
44%
Manchester City
+6 vs last week
Top 4 lock
92%
Arsenal
—
Relegation risk
88%
Southampton
+9 vs last week
Biggest riser
+70
Manchester City
Momentum index
Most pressure
94
Russell Martin · SOU
+14 in 7 days
Live
Premier League table
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | xPts | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ArsenalARS | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | +24 | 40.1 | 42 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Manchester CityMCI | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | +23 | 41.6 | 40 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  LiverpoolLIV | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | +17 | 36.9 | 38 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  ChelseaCHE | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | +11 | 32.4 | 34 | WLWDW |
| 5 |  Aston VillaAVL | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | +7 | 31.0 | 32 | WWDWL |
| 6 |  NewcastleNEW | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | +6 | 30.1 | 31 | WDWLW |
| 7 |  TottenhamTOT | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | +8 | 29.6 | 30 | LLWDL |
| 8 |  BrightonBHA | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | +3 | 28.3 | 29 | DWLDW |
| 9 |  BournemouthBOU | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +3 | 27.4 | 28 | WWDWL |
| 10 |  Nottingham ForestNFO | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | +2 | 25.0 | 28 | WWLWD |
| 11 |  FulhamFUL | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 25.1 | 26 | DWLDW |
| 12 |  BrentfordBRE | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 24.8 | 25 | WLWLD |
| 13 |  Crystal PalaceCRY | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 23.5 | 24 | DWDLW |
| 14 |  Manchester UnitedMUN | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 22.7 | 23 | LDWLD |
| 15 |  West HamWHU | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 21.0 | 22 | LLDLW |
| 16 |  EvertonEVE | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -5 | 20.0 | 21 | DLWDL |
| 17 |  LeicesterLEI | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 18.6 | 17 | LDLLW |
| 18 |  WolvesWOL | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -11 | 18.2 | 16 | LLWLD |
| 19 |  IpswichIPS | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -16 | 15.4 | 14 | LDLLD |
| 20 |  SouthamptonSOU | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -22 | 11.8 | 10 | LLDLL |
Champions LeagueEuropaRelegation
Prediction
Title race · Monte Carlo
- Manchester City44%
- Arsenal38%
- Liverpool13%
- Chelsea4%
Verdict · Arsenal lead the table, but City's game in hand and easier run-in shift effective probability slightly toward City.
AI
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Efficiency
Over / underperformance vs xPts
- Wolves+2.2 xPts
- Southampton+1.8 xPts
- Manchester City+1.6 xPts
- Leicester+1.6 xPts
- Ipswich+1.4 xPts
- Nottingham Forest+3.0 pts overperforming
- Arsenal+1.9 pts overperforming
AI
Latest insights
Manager37m
Tottenham wobble accelerates
Three losses in five, defensive xGA worst in top half. Pressure rating now 84/100. Boardroom patience reportedly thin.
Pressure +14Surprise1h
Bournemouth: most efficient attack south of top 4
Squad value tier 17, attacking output tier 7. Iraola's pressing is converting low-cost talent into top-half production.
Health +4Relegation2h
Southampton survival window narrowing fast
Relegation probability hits 88%. Goal difference of -22 is bottom of the league, and the next 5 fixtures average difficulty 7.4/10.
+9% relegationTrend3h
Aston Villa quietly strongest under-the-radar club
xPts vs actual aligned, balanced home/away split, Emery extension stabilizes ceiling. Top-4 odds drift up to 48%.
+5% top 4Top 45h
Chelsea efficiency below resource tier
Wage bill rank 4, points rank 4 — but xPts says they're overperforming. Regression risk material if injuries persist.
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